Like a soft-hearted boxer attempting to present the gang worth for cash, Apple has carried out its finest for years to maintain Google standing within the smartphone ring. If it actually exerted itself, we all the time felt, the Cupertino Crusher may put the Mountain View Mangler on the canvas in brief order. However the firm may by no means fairly convey itself to use the coup de grâce.

The rationale, after all, has nothing to do with charity—Apple merely doesn’t need to launch an iPhone that’s higher or costlier to fabricate than it must be. It has quite a few benefits over the assorted Android {hardware} distributors: it has more cash to spend on R&D, it may possibly management and optimise {hardware} and software program collectively, it has higher buyer belief and model recognition, and its enterprise mannequin isn’t based mostly on promoting and information seize. However whereas an “insanely nice” iPhone would possibly kill Android as a practical different, it could lower into revenue margins and go away Apple with nowhere to go the next 12 months. A greater long-term technique is to launch telephones simply sufficient higher than the earlier era to shift some models… and Google is welcome to stay round within the meantime.

Nonetheless, you’ll be able to’t sustain this type of factor indefinitely. In actual fact, it seems to be like 2025 would be the 12 months when the iPhone lastly establishes a transparent and indeniable lead over its rival. I’m not saying Android goes the way in which of BlackBerry and Home windows Telephone fairly but, however I think that by this time subsequent 12 months the writing will probably be on the wall and the graphs will all be stepping into a path that makes Tim Cook dinner blissful.

IDG

IDG

IDG

On the price range finish of the market, large modifications are coming to the iPhone SE, a product that’s endured a tough couple of years however, as I wrote again in April, seems to be set for a comeback within the subsequent iteration. The Third-gen mannequin failed to supply any worthwhile enhancements on the favored 2nd-gen SE, however stories recommend that Apple has discovered its lesson: it’s lastly going to maneuver on from that antiquated chassis and provides the subsequent SE a 6.1-inch OLED display, Face ID, an A16 processor, and excellent cameras. (Extremely, it seems to be like it is going to be based mostly on the design of this 12 months’s iPhone 16.) The worth will certainly be greater, however not by an enormous quantity, and $499 for that spec listing goes to be tough to withstand.

If Apple lastly takes that part of the market critically, it is going to signify a significant blow to Android’s prospects and telephones just like the Pixel 9a and Samsung Galaxy S24 FE. However extra dangerous information is coming on the premium finish within the type of the iPhone 17. If prospects apparently go nuts for cautious iterative updates just like the iPhone 15 and 16, what is going to they make of the redesigned iPhone Air?

Believable rumors level to a shake-up in 2025, with Apple ditching the 17 Plus and changing it with a 17 Air (or Slim, or another branding). This handset will probably be considerably thinner and lighter than the opposite fashions and will contain some compromises to accommodate this. In different phrases, it’s an iPhone X-like danger, however as my colleague Jason argues, it’s the sort that Apple must take. By changing the reportedly weakest-selling mannequin within the line with one thing daring, new, and classy, the corporate will create buzz and enchantment to prospects who’re uninterested in the identical previous iPhone look—in addition to entice some switchers alongside the way in which.

Foundry

Foundry

Foundry

Apart from the aesthetic and comfort implications of a slimmer design, the 17-series iPhones must also convey two good and at present Professional-exclusive display options–ProMotion, and the always-on show–and supply them throughout the vary. It will materially enhance the enchantment of Apple’s base fashions and sure tempt much more Android customers to make the soar. Apple loves an upsell, which is why it holds again options like this for years for the costlier telephones. However they drop right down to the usual fashions ultimately, and that’s when their actual affect on gross sales is felt.

In different phrases, all of it seems to be promising for the iPhone in 2025, and ominous for the Android ecosystem. Apple followers are even seeing enhancements within the areas the place the corporate has traditionally been weak. It was late to get on the AI bandwagon, however Apple Intelligence is rolling out this 12 months and is more likely to discover its ft in 2025. iOS is painted as overly restrictive with regards to consumer customization, however iOS 18 is way extra versatile than any of Apple’s earlier software program updates—we will even tint icons and put them the place we would like! Even current defeats for Apple, modifications imposed by political our bodies equivalent to permitting third-party app shops and (with the utmost reluctance) catering to consumer repairs, add to the general enchantment of its product ecosystem. A much less inflexible walled backyard could also be much less worthwhile for Apple nevertheless it’s precisely the type of factor that may entice curious Android customers.

Is there something left that Android does higher than the iPhone? Actually, not a lot. I suppose you’d have to incorporate foldables in that class, though I ponder how many individuals truly care. And the second folding smartphones turn into a worthwhile market, you’d think about Apple would swoop in with a folding iPhone that’s higher than something provided by the competitors.

So no, I don’t suppose there’s any getting back from this. Android’s had an honest run, and did nicely to remain on its ft this lengthy. However let’s be trustworthy: It’s time to chuck within the towel earlier than this battle will get ugly. RIP.